A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
